The next session at Web Science 2016 starts with a paper by Jure Leskovec on information cascades. Such cascades emerge as users of social media platforms (re)share content through their networks, and the prediction of such processes is traditionally very difficult.
One question in such predictions is whether a given cascade will reach the median size observed in historical cascades; because of how the median is defined, even a blind guess on this question will have a 50% success rate.
But cascades on a platform like Twitter can consist of multiple cascade trees sharing the same information, as pieces of …